ARB 0.1996 $
rang relatif 12/25 · tier neutral · 7j -6.2% · 30j -15.5%
Régime par timeframe (Kaufman ER)
source : context_state @ 2026-10-19 08:42 · ATR1h 1.83% · TP cible 4.5% · trend_aligned=False
Support / Résistance par timeframe — pivots planchers
| TF | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
|---|
| 15m | 0.1975 | 0.1982 | 0.1992 | 0.1999 | 0.2008 |
| 1h | 0.1941 | 0.1961 | 0.1974 | 0.1994 | 0.2007 |
| 4h | 0.189 | 0.1935 | 0.1962 | 0.2007 | 0.2033 |
| 1d | 0.1704 | 0.1787 | 0.1831 | 0.1913 | 0.1957 |
calculé : P=(H+L+C)/3, R1=2P−L, S1=2P−H, R2=P+(H−L), S2=P−(H−L) — sur la dernière bougie CLÔTURÉE de chaque tf (market_ohlcv/binance). Pas de niveau deviné.
Matrice substrat × stratégie (bot evd)
| substrat | poids | cote W | SH | RG | signal |
|---|
| trend_follow ⚠ mismatch | 50.5% | 42 | 39 | 43 | long |
| mean_reversion | 32.7% | 56 | 61 | 62 | long |
| vwap | 14.5% | 70 | 55 | 73 | long |
| volume_breakout | 2.1% | 34 | 22 | 48 | long |
| bollinger | 0.1% | 50 | 43 | 47 | long |
| rsi_divergence | 0.0% | 60 | 54 | 53 | long |
poids = bots.adn_tactical (evd) · cotes = substrat_scores (forward-return live, 0–100, 50=neutre) · ⚠ = poids ≥5% sur un substrat faible dans le régime/sens courant.
Posture du bot (dernier verdict — pas un oracle)
| macro | écosyst. | adn | technique | risque |
|---|
| 55 | 100 | 80 | 62 | 75 |
source : verdicts @ 2026-10-19 08:39 (tribunal interne ; macro=btc_trend+macro_metrics, écosyst=cross_sectional, technique=OHLCV/substrats).
Journal achat / vente (net des coûts BreakoutProp)
| lane | sens | entrée | sortie | P&L | motif | date |
|---|
| control | long | 0.1981 | — | — | OPEN | 2026-10-19 08:04 |
| evd | long | 0.1981 | — | — | OPEN | 2026-10-19 08:04 |
| control | long | 0.1979 | 0.1987 | +5.1 | tp_trail | 2026-10-16 10:09 |
| evd | long | 0.1979 | 0.1987 | +5.3 | tp_trail | 2026-10-16 10:09 |
| evd | long | 0.1987 | 0.1979 | -8.9 | tp_trail | 2026-10-16 07:09 |
| control | long | 0.1957 | 0.1979 | +13.9 | tp_trail | 2026-10-16 00:19 |
| evd | short | 0.1898 | 0.1978 | -55.0 | sl_hit | 2026-10-15 16:04 |
| control | short | 0.1767 | 0.1781 | -9.9 | circuit_breaker | 2026-10-15 14:19 |
| control | short | 0.1719 | 0.1767 | -33.9 | circuit_breaker | 2026-10-15 13:14 |
| evd | long | 0.1938 | 0.1914 | -28.0 | tp_trail | 2026-10-12 09:39 |
| control | long | 0.1918 | 0.1923 | +4.2 | tp_trail | 2026-10-11 03:14 |
| evd | long | 0.1918 | 0.1923 | +4.4 | tp_trail | 2026-10-11 03:14 |
source : trades (join bots) · P&L net depuis le fix coûts du 11/06.
evd vs control sur ARB
capital_fictif (base 5000 au fork) — bots evd #18 / control #31.