BCH 204.9 $
rang relatif 23/25 · tier neutral · 7j -4.6% · 30j -8.2%
Régime par timeframe (Kaufman ER)
source : context_state @ 2026-08-15 13:42 · ATR1h 0.439% · TP cible 2% · trend_aligned=False
Support / Résistance par timeframe — pivots planchers
| TF | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
|---|
| 15m | 204.3 | 204.6 | 204.8 | 205 | 205.2 |
| 1h | 203.9 | 204.2 | 204.4 | 204.7 | 204.9 |
| 4h | 203 | 203.8 | 204.9 | 205.7 | 206.8 |
| 1d | 195 | 199.9 | 203.5 | 208.3 | 211.9 |
calculé : P=(H+L+C)/3, R1=2P−L, S1=2P−H, R2=P+(H−L), S2=P−(H−L) — sur la dernière bougie CLÔTURÉE de chaque tf (market_ohlcv/binance). Pas de niveau deviné.
Matrice substrat × stratégie (bot evd)
| substrat | poids | cote W | SH | RG | signal |
|---|
| volume_breakout | 77.9% | 49 | 48 | 46 | court |
| macd | 13.0% | 51 | 58 | 49 | court |
| trend_follow | 7.6% | 48 | 54 | 49 | court |
| vwap | 0.5% | 50 | 62 | 49 | court |
| bollinger | 0.5% | 56 | 58 | 61 | court |
| mean_reversion | 0.4% | 50 | 55 | 55 | court |
poids = bots.adn_tactical (evd) · cotes = substrat_scores (forward-return live, 0–100, 50=neutre) · ⚠ = poids ≥5% sur un substrat faible dans le régime/sens courant.
Posture du bot (dernier verdict — pas un oracle)
| macro | écosyst. | adn | technique | risque |
|---|
| 63 | 50 | 54 | 74 | 75 |
source : verdicts @ 2026-08-14 20:54 (tribunal interne ; macro=btc_trend+macro_metrics, écosyst=cross_sectional, technique=OHLCV/substrats).
Journal achat / vente (net des coûts BreakoutProp)
| lane | sens | entrée | sortie | P&L | motif | date |
|---|
| control | short | 203.2 | 205.5 | -52.2 | sl_hit | 2026-08-14 12:49 |
| evd | short | 210.9 | 213 | -58.4 | sl_hit | 2026-08-11 15:59 |
| evd | short | 214.7 | 216.9 | -60.8 | sl_hit | 2026-08-09 23:44 |
| random_ctrl | long | 216.6 | 216.2 | -14.7 | time_stop | 2026-08-07 12:44 |
| control | long | 217.1 | 214.7 | -52.2 | sl_hit | 2026-08-07 12:34 |
| evd | long | 217.1 | 214.7 | -62.3 | sl_hit | 2026-08-07 12:34 |
| random_ctrl | short | 214.4 | 217.5 | -54.5 | sl_hit | 2026-08-06 01:14 |
| control | short | 206 | 208.4 | -52.7 | sl_hit | 2026-08-01 18:49 |
| evd | short | 206 | 208.4 | -62.9 | sl_hit | 2026-08-01 18:49 |
| evd | short | 209.3 | 206.9 | +36.2 | tp_trail | 2026-07-29 15:24 |
| control | short | 214 | 213.8 | -0.7 | tp_trail | 2026-07-27 14:39 |
| evd | short | 214 | 213.8 | -0.9 | tp_trail | 2026-07-27 14:39 |
source : trades (join bots) · P&L net depuis le fix coûts du 11/06.
evd vs control sur BCH
capital_fictif (base 5000 au fork) — bots evd #13 / control #45.