XRP 1.045 $
rang relatif 18/25 · tier neutral · 7j -6.2% · 30j -21.0%
Régime par timeframe (Kaufman ER)
source : context_state @ 2026-06-30 05:32 · ATR1h 0.801% · TP cible 3% · trend_aligned=False
Support / Résistance par timeframe — pivots planchers
| TF | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
|---|
| 15m | 1.044 | 1.045 | 1.046 | 1.046 | 1.048 |
| 1h | 1.04 | 1.043 | 1.045 | 1.048 | 1.05 |
| 4h | 1.034 | 1.039 | 1.049 | 1.054 | 1.064 |
| 1d | 1.01 | 1.034 | 1.055 | 1.079 | 1.1 |
calculé : P=(H+L+C)/3, R1=2P−L, S1=2P−H, R2=P+(H−L), S2=P−(H−L) — sur la dernière bougie CLÔTURÉE de chaque tf (market_ohlcv/binance). Pas de niveau deviné.
Matrice substrat × stratégie (bot evd)
| substrat | poids | cote W | SH | RG | signal |
|---|
| macd | 57.9% | 46 | 63 | 50 | court |
| bollinger | 13.3% | 67 | 77 | 56 | court |
| mean_reversion ⚠ mismatch | 13.1% | 40 | 49 | 40 | court |
| trend_follow | 9.3% | 64 | 75 | 72 | court |
| vwap ⚠ mismatch | 6.4% | 44 | 60 | 30 | court |
poids = bots.adn_tactical (evd) · cotes = substrat_scores (forward-return live, 0–100, 50=neutre) · ⚠ = poids ≥5% sur un substrat faible dans le régime/sens courant.
Posture du bot (dernier verdict — pas un oracle)
| macro | écosyst. | adn | technique | risque |
|---|
| 73 | 43 | 57 | 62 | 75 |
source : verdicts @ 2026-06-29 20:39 (tribunal interne ; macro=btc_trend+macro_metrics, écosyst=cross_sectional, technique=OHLCV/substrats).
Journal achat / vente (net des coûts BreakoutProp)
| lane | sens | entrée | sortie | P&L | motif | date |
|---|
| evd | short | 1.035 | 1.032 | +2.6 | tp_trail | 2026-06-25 14:29 |
| evd | short | 1.074 | 1.077 | -11.3 | tp_trail | 2026-06-24 14:24 |
| control | short | 1.162 | 1.126 | +98.9 | tp_hit | 2026-06-22 14:04 |
| evd | short | 1.162 | 1.126 | +98.2 | tp_hit | 2026-06-22 14:04 |
| evd | short | 1.164 | 1.129 | +108.5 | tp_hit | 2026-06-18 12:04 |
| control | short | 1.185 | 1.205 | -52.9 | sl_hit | 2026-06-14 23:54 |
| evd | short | 1.185 | 1.205 | -51.4 | sl_hit | 2026-06-14 23:54 |
| control | short | 1.166 | 1.181 | -53.8 | sl_hit | 2026-06-14 21:44 |
| evd | short | 1.166 | 1.181 | -52.2 | sl_hit | 2026-06-14 21:44 |
| evd | short | 1.142 | 1.154 | -53.4 | sl_hit | 2026-06-14 21:19 |
| control | short | 1.149 | 1.146 | +5.2 | time_stop | 2026-06-12 09:39 |
| evd | short | 1.129 | 1.149 | -52.9 | sl_hit | 2026-06-11 17:39 |
source : trades (join bots) · P&L net depuis le fix coûts du 11/06.
evd vs control sur XRP
capital_fictif (base 5000 au fork) — bots evd #11 / control #38.